Weekly Forex Review (June 4 – 8, 2022)

During the week, the tenge weakened against the US dollar by 1.8% to 474.92 tenge. At the same time, the national currency against the ruble during this period strengthened by 9.8% to 7.72 tenge. Since the beginning of July, the tenge has weakened against the dollar by 1.0%, against the ruble showed a strengthening by 14.0% (since the beginning of the year, weakening by 10.0% and 34.0%, respectively). The strengthening of the tenge against the ruble is in a greater degree due to the weakening of the Russian currency.

Over the past week the trading volume of the USDKZT pair compared to the previous one had decreased by 16.4% (or 30.6% compared to the average weekly trading volume in 2022) and amounted to $ 403 million. The weakening of the national currency continues to be at relatively small volume, and it eliminates the hype factor. We note the relatively low volatility of the tenge-dollar pair between trading days, which may indicate static supply and demand: a tendency to simultaneous upward movement or preservation at a certain level.

Jusan Analytics Opinion

As participants in the foreign exchange market were concerned about new problems with the main oil pipeline of Kazakhstan, the dynamics of the tenge exchange rate over the past week was quite negative. Due to the global trend of strengthening the dollar and the deterioration of our expectations for the value of exports and imports, we shift the estimate of the equilibrium value of the exchange rate to 464-469 tenge (previously 459-464 tenge).

In our opinion, the prevailing factor of the current exchange rate formation is the negative expectations of market participants regarding the economic prospects (internal and external), that are expressed in the absence of market incentives to sell the currency at a lower price. At the same time, pressure from domestic demand for foreign currency remains:  holiday season, an increase in imports as a result of the growth of economic activity and the transition of the business cycle to the “boom/growth” phase (according to the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan business activity index). And in such conditions we do not see any reasons for a significant strengthening of the tenge.

Read more in the paper

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