This week went favorably for the national currency. Tenge strengthened against the US dollar by 1.40% to 477.09 tenge, and strengthening against the ruble was more significant – by 7.41% to 7.75 tenge. In July, the tenge weakened against the dollar by 1.44%, and against the ruble showed a strengthening of 13.70% (since the beginning of the year, weakening by 10.49% and 34.55%, respectively).
In July, compared to last month there was a decrease in the monthly volatility of the tenge exchange rate against the dollar and ruble. At the same time, compared to the previous week there is an increase in the weekly volatility of the USD KZT pair.
Trading volume of the USDKZT pair were relatively equal to the previous week and amounted to $ 627.09 million (an increase of 7.0% compared to the average weekly trading volume in 2022). In July, the USDKZT pair trading volume increased by 11.9% compared to last month and amounted to $ 2,119.8 million.
Jusan Analytics Opinion
The positive external environment and the increase in the base rate of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan contributed to the preservation of tenge positions at the current level. However, the deterioration of the IMF’s forecasts for global GDP, especially against the background of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, and weak economic development in the United States and China, indicates a high probability of the occurrence of recessionary phenomena. Developing countries are experiencing the effects of the global economic downturn much more strongly than developed ones: the exchange rate of national currencies acts as the main factor absorbing trade shocks and capital outflows. There is also considerable uncertainty about inflation in Kazakhstan. The National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan announced an upward revision of its estimates for inflation growth by the end of the year, while, in our opinion, the current rate hike cannot be a significant factor in increasing the attractiveness of tenge and tenge assets – greater uncertainty leads to a strengthening of the dollar’s position against tenge.
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