Price barometer (October 2022)

Monthly inflation overview: causes, elements, forecasts

Main conclusions


There are signs of inflationary pressure weakening in the context of a general decline in consumer demand in the world economy. Now the prospects for global economic growth are more pessimistic	The annual growth rate of prices reached 18.8% – all components of the consumer basket made a significant contribution. The core inflation indicator exceeds the value of the general one, which indicates the wide and stable nature of inflationary processes spread


An acceleration of food inflation was caused by the gradual depletion of the disinflationary effect of seasonal cheapening of fresh fruits and vegetables, while non-food and service slowed down	Household inflation expectations have worsened and exceeded the actual level of inflation. This means that Kazakhstan citizens have changed their opinion about the imminent inflation slowdown and expect a longer price increase during 1 year


The deterioration of inflation expectations is one of the key factors in favour of the likely tightening of monetary conditions within the framework of the indicated approaches and rhetoric of the National Bank of Kazakhstan to making decisions on the base rate	According to our expectations, the main trigger for consumer price growth will be food shortly. Domestic prices may be affected by insufficient domestic production and the global rise in food prices, which may lead to the intention of several countries to ensure their food security


The consumer prices increase in October is in line with the expectations of Jusan Analytics. Our forecasts suggest an acceleration of inflation to 20.8-21.3% by the end of this year