Leading indicator of economy (9 months 2022)

The growth of the short-term economic indicator continues to slow down from +3.7 in the first 8 months of 2022 to +3.5% for 9 months

A decrease in growth rates is observed in 4 out of 6 sectors of the economy: industry, construction, trade, transport and warehousing.

The slowdown affected manufacturing and mining in the industry sector. The latter remained at the level of last year due to problems in the oil and gas industry and metallurgy. Oil production declined due to repairs at Kashagan and Tengiz, while metal production sank due to problems with the supply of iron ores to Russia.

In our opinion, the slowdown in construction is due to the hikes for building materials, a decrease in investment in housing construction, and the completion of major government projects.

At the same time, the issues of the real sector also affect the service sector, where there is a decline in trade, transport and warehousing. The observed weakening of domestic trade growth from +5.2% to +4.3% is probably due to both rising food prices (+22.2% YoY in September) and the fading away of the positive shock of trade with the Russian Federation. Although food sales are growing in monetary terms, they are declining in physical volumes. And on the contrary, in wholesale trade there is an increase in sales of food products, which may indicate a reorientation of the trade market more to the wholesale segment.

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