Leading indicator of economy (10 months 2022)

As we expected, the growth of the short-term economic indicator for 10 months of 2022 continued to slow down and amounted to 3.1%. Growth for 9 months has reached 3.5%.

The decline in growth rates is observed in the sectors of production of goods and services. There is a cooling in industry, trade, transport and warehousing. At the same time, agriculture and communications have grown.

The industrial sector is slowing down: the mining industry has moved into negative territory (-1%), and the growth of the manufacturing industry has decreased from 4.6% to 4.3%. Problems are noticed in the production of crude oil (-2.5%), natural gas (-1.5%), iron ores (-18.5%) and other minerals (-9.9%).

The construction industry is returning to its potential level after the overheating previously observed in the market.

Problems in the industry also affect separate sectors in the service industry. Thus, domestic trade continued to slow down from +4.3% to +4.1%. And we believe that the slowdown is due to the increase in food prices (+23.1% YoY in October) and the high base of last year. Due to a 2.9% drop in cargo transportation and a decrease in the growth rate of cargo turnover from 3.0% to 2.5%, growth cooled from 4.8% to 3.9% in transport and warehousing.

At the same time, the growth of the agricultural sector reached 8.2% due to a good harvest.

The telecommunication market shows advanced development (+7.1%). This is due to the growth of Internet services in Almaty and Astana cities.

Read more in the paper

Return to list