According to the results of September, the dynamics of the Real Monetary Conditions Index1 (RMCI) still correspond to the stimulating conditions, but its value came close to the neutral zone. Neutral conditions eliminate the stimulating effect on the short-term growth of several sectors of the economy, allowing further changes to reflect the real balance of factors to a greater extent.
The shift of monetary conditions closer to neutral ones was ensured by a positive gap in the real effective exchange rate of tenge. In general, the deviation of the REOC from the equilibrium value is insignificant, and this indicates its compliance with the fundamental level.
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Monthly inflation overview: causes, elements, forecasts