This is the maximum value for the last more than 2 decades. The last time the price increase in annualized terms was higher only in March 2000 – 20.6%. The National Bank of Kazakhstan was forced to raise the base rate 6 times by a total of 650 bps in the fight against high inflation over the past year. And as a result, it has reached the level of 2016.
By the end of December, monthly inflation was below our expectations (1.2%) and continued to follow the slowdown trend that emerged in October 2022.
The strengthening of the tenge against the Russian ruble by more than 16% at the end of December contributed to a relatively more moderate increase in prices for consumer goods, even despite the pressure of spending during the New Year’s preparations. The most unexpected for us was the dynamics of service inflation, the slowdown of which largely explains the below-expected level of consumer prices in general.
Meanwhile, the slowdown in price growth does not mean a decrease in inflationary pressure but suggests that they are not growing as fast as before. In any case, this is already a move in a positive direction.
Jusan Analytics imagines what will happen if to change some important circumstances in life and the economy. Disclaimer: this work is the author's fantasy, situations or conclusions are hypothetical.