Price barometer (January 2023)

Ежемесячный обзор инфляции: причины, компоненты, прогнозы

Risks and prospects

The balance of inflation risks remains biased in favour of inflation despite a moderate slowdown in the overall growth rate of consumer prices over the past 4 months.
And despite their decrease in January (this is a common situation that happens every year, and since February they have been growing again as usual) increased household inflation expectations, as well as the continued growth of the underlying inflationary pressure, are factors that require maintaining the base rate at the current level and maintaining hawkish rhetoric even after the reversal of the inflationary trend. At the same time, since the actual increase in inflation corresponds to the forecasts of the regulator, we regard the probability of a further increase in the base rate as minimal.
The heterogeneity of the dynamics of prices for market services with the continuing fiscal incentives may adversely limit the amplitude of the future decline in inflationary pressure and contribute to a longer period of high prices.
The cooling of consumer activity since the end of 2022, caused by a prolonged decline in household real incomes, the continuing rise in consumer prices and restraining monetary conditions, contributes to the cooling of inflationary pressure.
According to our forecasts, inflation during the first quarter of 2023 will continue to accelerate and will peak at 21.0-22.0% annually. And prices will decrease if there are no additional external and internal growth triggers.
Revised forecast values of future price growth dynamics will be presented “Price Barometer” for February 2023. Improving the forecasts of Jusan Analytics will mean that we identify stable signs of an improvement in the inflationary environment.

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