Price barometer (September 2022)

Monthly inflation overview: causes, elements, forecasts

Main conclusions


The observed global tightening of monetary conditions is still weakly coping with the inflation slowdown, but it can significantly affect economic growth and reduce aggregate demand	The increased inflationary background in the economy will remain as long as the changes in supply and demand are out of sync


Inflation reached 17.7% by the end of September, all its components made a significant contribution. The growth of core inflation and its acceleration indicates a more stable nature of inflation	According to a survey of the population from the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, household inflation expectations have worsened and may cause further acceleration of consumer inflation. At the same time, the main reason for their deterioration is the opinion of respondents about a further significant increase in food prices


This year, the seasonal cheapening for fruits and vegetables is longer than usual. Prices for other groups of food products show acceleration due to higher producer prices against the background of increased production costs	Double-digit price growth, together with no signs of stabilization, is the reason for the slowdown in the growth of domestic trade as the main indicator of consumption. The simultaneous increase in the deposit base indicates the formation of savings behaviour among a certain part of the population to create a “safety airbag” in the conditions of economic and geopolitical turbulence


There is an outspoken asymmetry of regional inflationary processes in September. A more significant increase in inflation is noticed in the northern, eastern and central regions of the country. And the regional inflation rate is significantly lower in the south and west of Kazakhstan	No signs of stabilization in internal inflationary processes, along with frequently changing external conditions, serve as prerequisites for maintaining increased inflationary pressure until the end of this year