Leading indicator of economy (results of 2022 and expectations for 2023)

The short-term economic indicator growth by the end of 2022 amounted to 3.5%. The growth rate of the short-term economic indicator showed good recovery dynamics in December (+5.1%).

Agriculture, construction and communications contributed the most to economic growth in 2022. At the same time, the industry sector had the most negative impact. Thus, there was some recovery in both the services and goods production sectors by the end of the year.

The agricultural sector grew by a record 9.1% hence one of the highest grain harvests in the last decade, which occurred by the increased state financing of harvesting operations and increased availability of agricultural machinery through leasing.

Despite the hike in prime cost, the construction industry showed an impressive increase by the end of the year and grew by 9.4%. Construction of residential buildings in 2022 increased by 13.7%, non-residential by 21.7% and structures by 9.7%. And we believe that this growth is due to the launch of major construction projects, the completion of repairs and prolonged financial promotion.

Industry became a struggling sector last year. Due to repairs at large deposits, multiple CPC shutdowns and a decrease in the supply of ferrous metals to Russia, the mining industry has been slowing down since April and decreased by 1% by the end of the year. Also during the year, oil production decreased by 1.9%, natural gas by 1%, iron ores by 20.6% and other minerals by 7.6%.

The slowing-down dynamics were noticed in the manufacturing industry, the growth rate of which decreased to 3.4% by the end of the year.

The cooling was observed in tobacco (from 9.8% according to data for 11 months to 7.9%), textile (from 8.1% to 5.3%), and metallurgical production (from 3.9% to 1.9%). In comparison with 2021, the production of furniture (-10.7%), pharmaceutical (-10.3%) and dairy (-7.1%) products also decreased.

In the service sector, good growth was seen in the communication market (+8.0%). This is due to the faster development of Internet services versus the slowdown of telephone services. Due to a cargo transportation drop of 2.8% and a slowdown in the growth rate of cargo turnover to 1.0%, the transport and warehousing industry has remained at the same level in recent months.

After slowing down in the summer-autumn period, trade continued its growth this month and grew by 5.0% at the end of the year. The growth rate of retail trade was 2.1%, and wholesale – 6.3%. The past year has changed trends within the industry under price pressure in the economy, where there was not only a reorientation of the food market to the wholesale segment but a reduction in demand for them also. At the same time, the demand for non-food products was backed by many installment programs and the growth of retail lending.


Read more in the paper

Опережающий индикатор экономики (итоги 2022 года и ожидания на 2023) Опережающий индикатор экономики (итоги 2022 года и ожидания на 2023)
Экономиканың озыңқы индикаторы (2022 жылдың қорытындылары және 2023 жылға болжамдар) Экономиканың озыңқы индикаторы (2022 жылдың қорытындылары және 2023 жылға болжамдар)
Leading indicator of economy (results of 2022 and expectations for 2023) Leading indicator of economy (results of 2022 and expectations for 2023)
We recommend reading
31 March 2023

29 March 2023

Monthly inflation overview: causes, elements, forecasts

27 March 2023