Sector Scoring by Jusan Analytics

Jusan Analytics team has developed an additive scoring model to identify the key drivers of the industry.

Scoring highlightes the most viable and efficient industry segments and gives a certain understanding of the problematic aspects of domestic production through the identification of outsider sectors.

Industry subsectors are evaluated according to 10 unique criteria. The subsector is determined by the first two values of the Common Classifier of Economic Activity (CCEA) structure.

Each criterion is measured by a coefficient, that is calculated using the Bureau of National Statistics (BNS) data. We have used the average value of the period from 2018 to 2022 in the calculation to smooth out unnecessary fluctuations.
Each subsector criterion result is compared with the indicator of the corresponding sector. Then each subsector is assigned from 0 to 3 points:
- - 3 points: the subsector exceeded the maximum value of the corresponding sector from 2018 to 2020;
  - 2 points: the subsector exceeded the average value of the corresponding sector;
  - 1 points: the subsector did not exceed the average value of the corresponding sector;
  - 0 points*: the subsector showed a negative result.
* if there is no data on the coefficient 0 points are also assigned
The assigned according to the criterion score is multipled by its share in the sector scoring. Each criterion has the same weight, since each of these criteria makes its own unique contribution to the development of production and the industrial sector as a whole.
The results for all criteria are summed up, and the subsector is assigned a total score – the higher the score, the higher the rank of the subsector in the corresponding sector.

Main conclusions

Our scoring has revealed the key drivers of the industry. The most stable subsector in the primary sector was the extraction of metal ores: high indicators of development visibility, profitability, competition with imports and operational efficiency. In the secondary sector, was turned out that metallurgical production is the main driver: strengths were noted in terms of profitability, debt burden, competition with imports and operational efficiency. Further development of metal ore mining and metallurgical production will lead to an increase in the overall performance of the industrial sector.

And we have also identified less stable subsectors of the industrial sector. The subsector for rendering services in the mining industry in the primary sector turned out to be an outsider, in the secondary sector – the subsector for the production of finished metal products. The stimulation of these subsectors will allow a multiple increase in the overall of the industrial sector output level and indicators of the industrial sector development as a whole.