During the week, the national currency continued to weaken against all traded currencies. The tenge weakened against the US dollar by 0.73% to 483.88 tenge, and against the Russian ruble – by 0.24% to 8.37 tenge. Since the beginning of July, the tenge has weakened against the dollar by 2.88%, and against the ruble it has strengthened by 6.79% (since the beginning of the year it has weakened by 12.06% and 45.31%, respectively).
As there were no one-time shocks during the period under the report, the volatility of the USDKZT pair decreased significantly. At the same time, the weakening of the tenge took place at a lower volume of trading on the stock exchange than last week.
Thus, over the past week, the trading volume of the USDKZT pair decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous one and amounted to $ 627.37 million. However, compared to the average weekly trading volume in 2022, the volume has increased by 7.3%.
Jusan Analytics Opinion
The external moderately negative environment contributes to the further weakening of the tenge, but the rather strong position of the dollar and the restrained risk appetite of investors fearing recessions continue to exert significant pressure. The current dynamics of the oil market are associated with a swing when the risks of a shortage of supply are replaced by concerns about demand.
In our opinion, there is no reason to reverse the trend of weakening of the national currency in the short term, the US dollar will continue to trade about 485 tenge.
Read more in the paper