Loan behavior: changes for November 2022

The total loan portfolio of banks excluding REPO loans increased by 785 billion and amounted to 23.3 trillion tenge for the month. In total, the growth amounted to 4 trillion tenge or 20.6% since the beginning of the year. Detailed dynamics are published in the form of interactive graphs in “Economy in numbers”: https://jusananalytics.kz/en/dinamika-kreditov/.

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index was 1.696 (-3.2 points for the month). Halyk continues to lose market share (-17 points) but remains the leader in the total portfolio share of 33.7%. Kaspi improves its position (+19 points) against the background of marketing campaigns. And in addition to these two banks, the top 5 in the share of the total loan portfolio include Otbasy, BCC and Forte.

Almost all banks were able to increase their loan portfolio in November. The largest increase is observed at Kaspi – 266.7 billion, Halyk Bank – 208.3 billion and BCC – 89.5 billion tenge.

We note Freedom Finance Bank, Jusan, Forte and Altyn Bank among the banks that have a high potential for increasing their banking power. KZI and Al Hilal Bank can potentially be included in this list, but they are not distinguished by active lending. Bereke bank’s banking power is limited by the capital stock, the bank was able to ensure its sufficiency to meet prudential standards only in November.

We do not see high growth in non-performing loans for November. The average NPL 90+ level was 4.6%, which is equal to the previous month. The growth in the level of non-performing loans is observed in VTB (+0.7 p.p.), Kaspi (+0.3 p.p.), Forte (+0.1 p.p.) and Eurasian Bank (+0.1 p.p.).

The problem of a high NPL 90+ level is smoothed over thanks to provisions formed for non-performing loans. A high ratio of provisions to NPL90+ is observed in Otbasy Bank – 344%, Halyk – 276% and Jusan – 229%. We believe that most banks remain committed to a conservative provisioning policy. Thus, among the banks with high lending are Halyk, Kaspi, Home Credit, Jusan and Forte, and there is an increase in the level of provisioning.

The average level of the cost of risk has practically not changed and is 1.7%. A significant decrease is observed at Freedom Finance Bank (-3.1 p.p.), and a significant increase – at Jusan bank (+1.2 p.p.). We also note that this indicator is below average for retail banks, which indicates an optimistic assessment of the loan portfolio and the provisions created. The increase in the cost of the risk level shows there is active work aimed to improve the loan portfolio.

The loan yield has slightly increased: the average yield was 12.7% (+0.2 p.p. per month). Retail banks and Jusan maintain high loan yields.

The loan portfolio yield grew the most in a month at Nurbank (+0.7 p.p.), BCC (+0.6 p.p.) and Eurasian bank (+0.6 p.p.). The yield reduction is observed at Kaspi bank (-0.6 p.p.) and Bereke bank (-0.7 p.p.).

In general, the tightening of monetary policy will lead to a reduction in the returns of most retail banks, which are forced to attract funding at high rates.

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