Loan behavior: changes for July 2022

The total loan portfolio of banks excluding REPO loans increased by 324.4 billion tenge or 1.5%. The increase in July is almost 2 times lower than the increase last month. Since the beginning of the year, the loan portfolio has grown by 2.05 trillion tenge or by 10.6% in total. Detailed dynamics are published in the form of interactive graphs in “Economy in numbers”: https://jusananalytics.kz/en/dinamika-kreditov/.

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index on loans for July was 1,741, which is 10 points higher than in June. This indicates a continuing shift of the lending market towards a highly concentrated one (over 1,800). The top 5 in terms of the total loan portfolio share still include Halyk, Kaspi, Otbasy Bank, BCC and Jusan.

The largest increase in the loan portfolio is observed at Kaspi – 161 billion tenge (+6.1%), BCC – 106.7 billion (+6.8%) and Halyk Bank – 105.6 billion (+1.4%). And the loan portfolio of the subsidiary banks of the Russian Federation continues to shrink.

Within the lending power assessment, we note the following banks that conduct active business-model with a high potential to increase lending to the economy: Freedom Finance Bank, Jusan, Forte and Altyn Bank.

Home Credit has a decrease in the share of loans to assets by 2.87 p.p. compared to last month, which indicates an increase in borrowing power and liquid assets. Despite the positive value of equity capital (a negative one was observed last month), Sberbank’s borrowing power is limited by the lack of equity capital and liquidity cushion.

Almost all banks continue to maintain a high level of provisioning of non-performing loans: for example, Otbasy – 418%, Nurbank – 298%, Halyk – 273% and Jusan – 228%. In general, the trend of transition to a more conservative provisioning policy continues for most banks, except for those that were previously in the active phase of working with non-performing loans.

The average level of the cost of risk in the banking system in July was 1.52%, which is 0.4 p.p. less than last year and 0.17 p.p. more than the previous month. So, banks have also moved to a more conservative assessment of risks and their coverage policy given the significant level of economic uncertainty.

A value above the average level is observed in Jusan, Home Credit, BCC, Eurasian and Kaspi banks, which indicates a cautious risk management policy and accounts for the ongoing risk growth in the economy. An increase in the value of provisions created for the loan portfolio at Kaspi bank with its share in the consumer lending segment may indicate a certain overheating of the segment.

The average loan yield for July was 12.09% (+0.16 p.p. for the month, +0.04 p.p. compared to the same period last year). In general, there has been a yield increase in the banking sector since the beginning of the year.

Retail banks still maintain high rates of loan portfolio yield. Among universal banks, the largest value of return on loans is observed at Jusan (24.6%), the bank has been able to increase its yield by 12.7 p.p. since the beginning of the year. Given the bank’s business model, a relatively low level of loan portfolio yield is still at Otbasy Bank – 7.1% (6.95% for July 2021).

Compared to the same period last year, almost all banks were able to increase their yield.

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