The dashboard allows you to understand what phase of the short-term cycle the economy is in, as well as predict the likely actions of economic agents (inflation, exchange rate, business activity, rate).
According to the results of the developed dashboard, 22 out of 29 factors indicate a steady overheating of the economy. The analysis was carried out in 4 blocks: inflation, monetary, economic and external terms. A semantic analysis of the press release of the National Bank of Kazakhstan was also carried out.
It is necessary to take appropriate measures to stabilize the situation. We expect an increase in the base rate at the next meeting of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan Monetary Policy Committee. At the same time, the number and stability of the overheating areas indicate the need for a more drastic increase in the rate.
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The Short-term Economic Indicator showed solid growth and amounted to 5.0% in the first month of 2023.
Ежемесячный обзор инфляции: причины, компоненты, прогнозы