According to the dashboard results for December, 17 out of 30 factors show an overheating of the economy. The analysis was carried out in 4 blocks: inflation, monetary, economic and external terms. A semantic analysis of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan press release was also carried out.
Compared to the previous dashboard, 1 indicator in the monetary conditions block and 1 in the external conditions block have moved into the cooling zone. Due to the tightening of internal monetary conditions and the mitigation of the negative impact of the external inflationary background, there is a slight weakening of the price overheating in the economy in December 2022. And we note a positive increase in economic development for the first time since the last spring.
We believe that a further increase in interest rates can only deepen stagflationary risks in the current conditions. Keeping the base rate at the current level will help maintain a balance between limiting further price growth and maintaining positive business activity dynamics.
Read more in the paper
Monthly inflation overview: causes, elements, forecasts
The short-term economic indicator growth demonstrated recovering dynamics and amounted to 3.2% over the 11 months of 2022.